From Signature to Standstill: The Future of the EU–Mercosur Agreement –

The EU–Mercosur Agreement has entered a new and uncertain phase. The provisional application of the Interim Trade Agreement since 1 May 2026 has delivered tangible progress in EU–Mercosur economic integration. Although the agreement was formally signed on 17 January 2026, the European Parliament’s decision to refer it to the European Court of Justice for legal checks effectively freezes the ratification process, with the final ruling potentially taking up to two years. In this Forum, based on the discussion at CEPS Ideas Lab 2026, policymakers, economists and stakeholders from both the EU and Mercosur consider what lies ahead: Is provisional application of the agreement a legally and politically viable option? What does this prolonged impasse mean for the future of EU–Mercosur relations? What are the broader strategic implications for EU trade policy at a time of heightened geopolitical competition, shifting alliances and supply chain reconfiguration?