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Forum · Issue 3 · 2022
 The Ripple Effects of the War in Ukraine

As the war in Ukraine continues with no feasible solution in sight, economists and policymakers are considering the ripple effects of the conflict in numerous sectors: energy, food and agriculture, raw materials and technology, security and defence, migration, and the global world order. This Forum examines the impact of the war on the European economy and society, how to address the fall out in the hardest hit sectors and the deep-seated ramifications that will play out in the years and decades to come.

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Forum · Issue 1 · 2022
 Redesigning EU Fiscal Rules After COVID‑19

This Forum, based on a recent conference jointly organised by Intereconomics and CEPS, provides a critical assessment of the current state of the debate on European fiscal rules, examines the recent European Fiscal Board’s reform proposal for the EU fiscal framework, draws on the experience of the national independent fiscal institutions and considers the idea of a social golden rule for public investments.

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Forum · Issue 2 · 2022
 The Challenges of Inflation in Europe and the US

Inflationary pressures and uncertainties related to the severity and duration of the coronavirus pandemic have been growing steadily in the last year. In addition, the Russian war against Ukraine has provided a definitive answer to questions about whether rising inflation is just temporary. The sharp increase in already volatile food and energy prices is presenting monetary policymakers with new challenges.

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Event
 EU Enlargement in a New Light

The joint Intereconomics/Bruegel event explored what would increase government support around EU enlargement, and what role could membership play in future peace talks.

Details and media

Russia
 Sanctions and the Exchange Rate

Oleg Itskhoki and Dmitry Mukhin show that a strong appreciation of the rouble over the past two months was driven by import sanctions and financial repression, both of which lowered demand for foreign currency. Does this mean that the sanctions are not working?

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Agricultural Trade
 The War in Ukraine and Risks to Global Food Security

The current conflict exposed and exacerbated tensions on international agricultural commodity markets existing amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Supply disruptions could intensify in the medium term, causing further food instability in the Global South.

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refugees
 The War in Ukraine and Migration to Poland

The flight from war zones has drastically changed the migratory situation in many countries of the EU, including Poland. Maciej Duszczyk and Paweł Kaczmarczyk look at the most important challenges faced by Poland and by war refugees themselves.

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War in Ukraine
 The Asymmetric Impact of War: Implications for the EU

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the consequent sanctions, have unleashed supply and demand shocks, slashing growth, fueling inflation and raising new challenges for the EU’s fiscal and monetary policy.

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Letter from America
 The Cost of Restricting Abortion Access

In early May, news broke of an unprecedented leaked draft U.S. Supreme Court opinion. If it ends up being the final decision, it would be the end nearly 50 years of a constituionally guaranteed right to a safe abortion.

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Quote of the Month

"[P]olicymakers should not rely on statistical relationships that held in the decades before the pandemic when making predictions in today’s very different environment."

Jason Furman
Why Did (Almost) No One See the Inflation Coming?

Current Issue

Volume 57
2022
Issue 3

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Figure of the Month

Euro area HICP outlook – baseline, adverse and severe scenario (annual percentage change)

While inflation in the euro area is expected to stay high this year as inflationary pressures have broadened and become more persistent, inflation is likely to stabilise at 2% in the medium term.

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