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CONFERENCE ANNOUNCEMENT

10th Annual Intereconomics / CEPS Conference

 

On 27 October 2020, Intereconomics, together with the Centre for European Policy Studies, will host our annual conference, this year virtually, on the topic: COVID-19: From Lockdown to Recovery.

Register now to join us as we discuss a number of pressing issues: How much longer can the economy stand the partial shutdown? What policy measures are needed to put the EU on a road to recovery? How will the crisis impact the youth? The response to the economic damage this crisis has inflicted on the Union must be joint and swift – the future of the EU depends on it.

Further details and registration information can be found here.

Forum

After COVID-19: Rethinking Fiscal Rules in Europe

Following the COVID-19 outbreak in Europe this spring and subsequent measures to contain the pandemic, the European Commission drastically revised its economic and fiscal forecasts. The Summer 2020 Economic Forecast projects that the euro area economy will contract by 8.7% in 2020. The coronavirus crisis is expected to push the general government deficit to about 8.5% of GDP this year. Even in an optimistic V-shaped recovery scenario with a GDP growth rate of 6.1% in 2021 due to the temporary nature of lockdown measures taken in 2020, the headline deficit is expected to decrease to about 3.5% of GDP. Furthermore, both the downturn and the rebound of economic activity are expected to be asymmetric across member states, exposing entrenched divergences. The recent outlook highlights the problem of pro-cyclical revisions of potential output and output gap estimates. Some economists warn that the current fiscal framework may lead to pro-cyclical and thus destabilising fiscal policies, a problem encountered in Southern Europe during the European sovereign debt crisis that has implications for the entire European Union. In order to avoid repeating past mistakes, the debate on how to reform European fiscal policy should be settled before the rules are reenacted post-coronavirus crisis.

Editorial

The Political Economy of the Belarusian Crisis

While it is difficult at present to predict the outcome of Alexander Lukashenko’s fight against Belarusian society, it is useful to examine the structure of the Belarusian economy in order to better understand the country’s political economy and th inform Europe’s strategy regarding Belarus. Sergei Guriev’s Editorial details the current economic challenges facing Belarus.

The Covid-19 Response

The Economics of the Coronavirus Crisis

Intereconomics will be publishing all coronavirus crisis related articles online first in order to provide our readers up-to-date information as this unprecedented situation continues to unfold.

Read all COVID-19 related articles

Editor's Choice

Integration of Immigrants in EU Labour Markets

While the labour market integration of immigrants will likely always remain a difficult task, the authors in this Forum hope to contribute to improving this process and consequently enriching both host countries’ economies and immigrants’ lives.

Forum

Reforming EU Fiscal Rules

The approval of the recovery plan for Europe by the extraordinary Council summit in July 2020 was a major breakthrough on the path to reforming EMU economic governance. The recovery plan will alleviate the problems substantially in the short run, but it does not remove the necessity to reform fiscal rules to prevent further austerity over the medium term, writes Achim Truger. EU fiscal rules still urgently need a reform in order to strengthen the role of fiscal policy.

Letter from America

A Vote for the Economy? A Vote Against Democracy

2020 has been quite a year. In the last few months alone, the US is reeling from a COVID-19 induced health and economic crisis, police brutality and civil unrest and raging wildfires on the west coast. Regardless, Trump's supporters stand firmly behind him partly due to their belief that he is the best candidate to get the economy back on track. In this issue's Letter from America, Jiffer Bourguignon writes that Trump’s supporters are willing to accept the gradual erosion of America’s democracy in exchange for what they believe he can do for the economy.

Quote of the Month

"[T]he EU should state clearly that stealing elections, arresting opposition politicians and beating peaceful protesters is wrong – and follow up with sanctions, putting the money where its mouth is…. If Belarus embarks on the reform trajectory, there are many reasons to be optimistic about its economic performance."

from Sergei Guriev's Editorial The Political Economy of the Belarusian Crisis